Significant drop of dry-bulk deliveries from china imminent

- By Sagar Shere March 24, 2020
China

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There is a massive drop in the dry bulk vessel delivery only one dry bulk vessel of the planned 24 new buildings was delivered by Chinese shipbuilders in February 2020, according to the Maritime Strategies International (MSI) research and consultancy firm.

The trend indicates that a significant slippage can be expected with regard to the dry bulk deliveries planned for this year as Chinese shipbuilders, which account for 65 % of the global dry bulk order book, return to production following the drop in coronavirus infection cases.

MSI believes the current economic turmoil could offer the yards a chance to re-organize the delivery schedule to help address an arguably bigger problem.

According to MSI Dry Bulk Analyst Will Fray, said, “The order book in China is heavily front-loaded and dry bulk shipbuilding activity in the country will drop off a cliff in 2021 unless the schedule is effectively managed.”

Given that three-quarters of the order book for 120,000 dwt vessels and above is at Chinese yards, MSI believes a significant amount of slippage from the planned Capesize order book is inevitable, with just 0.7 million dwt delivered on average per month over the next three months.

In comparison, a little over half of the Panamax order book for delivery this year is being constructed in China, with most of the remainder in Japan. Chinese shipyards account of 54% of the 2020 Handysize orderbook by deadweight with this order book also heavily ‘front-loaded’ suggesting that significant slippage should be expected, MSI data shows.

“In the Capesize sector, the delivery schedule is hugely front-loaded, implying a large number of vessels are almost ready for delivery from China. The outbreak of COVID-19 has so far been far less severe in Japan, and we expect to see less slippage in the sub-Capesize segments,” adds Fray.